Ҫΰ


()  
		

	ҵǣһ̸ᣬǱֳмһ˵ӡԤ
Ӧĳ˵ǡа					
			Ӷ˼J. K. Galbraith

	ͳĺһǻۡ
	ܱ˵£Joseph Schumpeter


	šһһϮ󣬾ϴǴ𣬶йȴ
Ϊ𾪣ǾȻһƬֻĻйеһ¾Ӣ
ڽйΨһеɵ̳ϷԼʵµ
ⲢǡһС顱˵ƫִ˵Ǵ˺ܴһ⣬Ӧǲ

	ڡšһһһɥĲķУ˵κһ
˶ģԼĵйһҲ㹻ǣվ
Ͽ֮µйŽվɻĵףһ춯
¾ֻı˵һĽ
	ǣйϷ֣ԼԽȦ֮Сһ棬й
ȷʵһйִ̣ԣһݺ
ĴǴǰѡ񣬷ض˹ڹᣨȻҲ
ֲй棬ĻʹǱһ棬
ġ¼һɿй˵ĳ
ʮʼһش³޽ֱڣӡëŮɫӾ
㡷Ȼй̨ɿ׼ޡڣȴվһߣ
й羫Ӣ¼УΪ
ʮΡ
	ҲϱսΪϾĿ顣˵šһһ
ǵսĿҲãսʼҲգԣ֮
šһһⲿսĻǰսսԶ
ǧ֮⡣ңľ漸ע֣Ƽڽ̿˻
جһΪʵ˲
	Ҵ棬һ˵šһһһոʱ
ţʷӴ˲ԭȻǣʲôʱǬ
˼ʱֵʱǳ׷ʡԡʱص
ѾݻرܡӦѣͼԾȡȻģ
ߡ޺ͱȴκ⡣

һ.ʮҰĽ

	šһһ׽սʢһʱֹ塣ʶ̬ͻ
ٽսˣʷûսᡣ
	Դġ¾áԭ˳ĭĿġȫ򻯡
ֻоûΣֻʱƷͨͶĶֳ
֪ͻ᳹׵սѾزͻȫ
ô˥ˣϱƶѣκֹԤԶʵ
ֲ岻ۺ֢ȺĿıѡ
	ܡԶʲôܹ˵
״̬Ψһķԭʼеġǿʳǡһ˶һ˵ս
˹ʮҰǽ磬۹ҼĹ
ϵ۲ʮҰ͹ʹϵԣ໹û
żҵĹһִƼѾﵽ˺̶ֳȣ
֮²ķ̡
	ȻһȫĲʵȴΪȻ
Ȼ˼ǣ鱾ˣҲֻˡ塢
鼰£ÿҿڱտڶǡ桱ĺһ
ȫػ塢Щ룬ĿΪ߽ƺֻΪ
ظӣɵ˲Ż档ҵھŽԳ
ֵܡĳΰ󣬲ΪӡΪõķۻ֮࣬
żϰڰӰˡߣӹ˭
	˷˼һʵѧɵĶѧߡйҵĶ
ڰѺõѧΪõҽΪǸĪΣҪ
ʵ⣬Ҫҩóİ취ʵ壨Լʵ֤
壩ѧȴΡ롢ֵۡͳͳϳѧ
ѧֵ档ǣǱص÷ʣЩѧߵġ͹ۡ
֮·

.ʵƶ

	ָй˴յаجѹ
ʮꡣңԶ˶ˣĸĹƻɿ
ڹʧȺȻһʧ̾ͻҷ
ʽļӢۣҲȻһȺ֪ʶӵż񡣱Ƶġΰ
Ȼһ֣ǣ෴Ҫģһֿɲ
ģ̤ʵءºͽ룻ܾһм멤
Ǵ˼ë󶫵ּ룬ڽԭּĻ򽩻
ļ롣һм룬ǿֲķԴء
	ΣӼ֮Ʋӹʵ֮档֮Ī
ʧ䡣ڷּͬʱǻӹп
ģ۽Сʵ塣ΪǡšһһԵʣָʹ
ϵеʵѧɡ
	ѧɵıݵ˹ά˹Ħ(HansMor
genthou)Ϳ˹ֶ(KennethWaltz)䵱ĴԶս
һѧ˵ͷʢٲȻΪѧѧ˵ֱȻ
μҺѧߵ˼롱ܽף˽һ㣬Ͳ˽
ΪС
	ʵѧɵĺǣʹϵĻ״̬
ˣȨƣʵǾΪߵΨһ׼Ҳˣ塢淶
롢ֵۿ̸ʷԹΪöΥ棬
Ϲȹ֯ڸǸ֮
	һѧ˵ķ᲻й𾪣ûаա
ܿܣڶйˣڶ֪ʶӢ̽ȨӢѰͬ
Ӧͬ󡱰֪СձϹȻԡʵһСΪ
ʵζйָйвۡս˼άֵֹ˭
Լڸˣ㲻ȻԺöΪٷʶ̬Һ
Ҫߵ귨˹·
	Ȼѧ˵ʵһɺԩһѧߵʿȣ
Ҳò֮ΪԴ󡱣ܽף״̬
򣩡
	ȣ߼վסšӡ״̬һʵһ
ⷸ߼ѧϡƲĴ󣬼ǰ֮û̺ϵ
ԣӡ״̬ԵԹ󡱣һ
ĻŬ͵λ۵Ŀ϶Գɹ
	Σʵʵǣ֮⣬û
һȫ˹ʷ͹ʵ壬ȫԡһСһ
еġ֮ԳΪΪж֮Ϊڶ
ͬ˹ʷ͹ʵһС
	Σ⵽Ⱦ۵У
ʶȵò
	һԪۺ壬ǡĸ־ͿԽ
ţּҲɲݣңɡ롰֮
ǰڳͻģߵĹϵʧȥƽ⣬󣬡
ҡЩţ塢Խ۵ġ
ʵ塱رǣȻաȴδޡ˼壬һ
ɿͻԱʵǿΪ뵱
ʳԱȡ͢ԡͻǶʮһ͵ɣ
ȴ˿һʵʷϴδйͻ֮
һʮ֩˼弰й
ΪͻҪɡǡ͢ٵѧ߿ھ
ȫ򻯵ʱ沢ǱȻաӢµǿ֮䶼Э
㹻ãͬʱҲǡǿģͻʶ̬ԴԵ
ͣʶ̬ĳͻȴڲֲͬĳͻ
Ҽ޹ϵʽй½ŵ˿ϢҲ
ŬĴˡά˵úãй
òͷȻָһ
˼֮ʵлвûʵ塰ʵ
һСѧ˵ţұǡ͢Դȴ֪飬
֪йĵʱûʲôǡ

	ұӶ˼ʵ壨Լƫִŷһѧ
˵Ĺ͵һС顶᣺˵ļ±ƪޣ
ƼԼȥǹ͵пʹƽҹ
б

.͵ʹѹ

	йĿеͬȻأҲ
Ϊ䷶ȴȻʵϣǵͣ
ֻһվұߵпάվߵɣؾͿס
Ӧѧһڽ˵Ǳϵ۳軵ĺӣ
Լʶȫʮ֮һ˿ڣȫ1/3Դ1/2
ĹҵƳƷ˵ݳ޺˷޷ЧԶ󼰵ģ
ͱȻ¼ļޡңгߺ˵òԣ
ѲƽԴǲɺĽߵģʮֹٶ
û⣬߸Ͼˡռˣǰ˺ͺ˵
ᡣչֵܲڹԮ֮һ
᲻мޣ
	˶˽ɱɡ෴Ҹ˾飬ɰ
壬Ҳ浥йԶסһ
ʵսʤĵ߷ʱ̣Ȱ˵ϲʲͳɲ
˵ǡѾһɱٴȥͲķ񣬲塱
ʱľ߸߲Դûһ˳飬Ļ;Ƿ
ǡÿһλйʣ㣬վʽһߣǻվ
ж˵ġҪɾ͸ɵסһߣźǣͳȴǱ

	ߵһУ壩͹Ѿãڽ
ңܲϣȫڶҺԹŭһȥ
ʢеʵʹϵѧ˵֮⣬е̬ҲĪϵ
ŷ˹Կú
	ŷ޹ҵĹ̬ƶȵԳ־ȶģ޲
Ϊ˫֮乹һֺּġͲȡ˫
棬ٲȣϵ롰׼ʽġͲȡ
֮ñΪ֮ʧ˫ʧ֮Ϊ㡱Ͳȡù
棩෴ͬƫң
͵͸ң͵Ѿ뼫ֻ벽֮ңɣ˵ʵ
һ㣺̫Աŷ޹ҶԣΪʲôѡں
ͬĵı塱˶鲻ԽؾҪɡûͬĵı
塱˽ʵ壬ΪʲôƷֹȫůġ鶨顷
ֹ׹ʹԼ͹·ͥ䵭жƽ̼ʰ뵺ϱͽ
Сֶж̬ȡȵҹߵԭڡڴ
ҲѵóۣҲû˱˵ңڵ
ƶҲ᳤ʧȥƽ⣬ڷ˵ǲĵ
ͻ棬ȴòһʡ

.Ҫΰ

	û˷Ϲϵĳ̶ֳϴ״̬ѧ繫ۡ
ȻⲢζֻǿʳһ·ߡҪ˷֮ĸಢעû
һĴ߳һ·
	Զ׼ȻĹԴѾڶ
֮ȹ̽ȻһսĹսϹѾȻɬϾ
ǿʵĹʵȻŷĳʵۿһɹ
ôûʲô˵һΰעֻԶ
а
	ȻԴ˹ֺë󶫰˼ĹĴΪʷǰ˼
аһѾΪڶѧ˱֮ΩֲĶ
ζţȮʽʵΨһȡ֣һǿ
Ʈ޶ĿĴһһһ̤̤ʵʵصɽɽ
󼰣ǾһҪȥ
	ûٻһȨԵʱţ״̬
֮ᴵ֮硣ְֻϹĺϷԣ
˹ͳһսγɵʵһһʽذ
Ĺչ֮䡣21صĴ֮£
ڱտڡ桱ĻйģЩ΢ĩС
ͷ޷ǡ˵ùһ桱۲۵ĸͲȡšһһ
ֲϮѾʾǣȻɽЩ
Ҷȥò̫ãҲǰ֮䣩ʷ
ʹս᣺ǡʷսᣬ嵽սᡣ
	һʱҲԶǽǸμճ
ϵĶЩСϰѾܹȥѾܲͷ
٣ҸΪ뼰翪ʼж
	һ𲽸ϹĹؽ᳣¹һ
ƱϹ۹ҴСС˴13ڣһһƱƶ
ЦǶǻ۵ļŪ
һɵˣϹγƶȾҲ
Ǹ⡣
	ΪΨһĳӦȴϸظȫ
Ρ
	1Ǹ˽ġ桱ŵӦŵλȥŵȫ
±ȥ˭һ쿪ڱտڡңҼ˵桱ģ
Ҫһ羯죬Ϊǿ󣬾עҪҪã
Ȼˣ㾯Լ˵ϼĺԭһȨ
ܵԼ⣿
	2˹˵óû˹ͬ
ԽʷĵжζΥΪ
	3˹һȴ֮࣬ĳ˵ػͿ
ԮѹڵḣһȫΧƹ㣩ϵľ
Ž˹ΧɷԿֲҵͳһսߡֻ
ϹĸʵֵϣֲΩƶǿֲ
ֵ´ȤΪʥսˡ
	СķƱʹϹ̱ʹ״̬
Ϲ֮ǰӦá⡱ůСģվ
룬Ӱ˵Ǽᶨ
ֵϡƶΪһ壬Ҫ֧ʲôʲô
̨ضһǻʵΪļţ֧һ
ļţ֡ߡơǱڵˡȵȣֻʹ
ػģǲԶ
״̬û
	ģͬͬվڰ˹ͽϣŬ
ȥǡ½ǡǽѣȡ˹
ºͻ׻ĸ޶ȵذһС鼫ӹӮ
ö˹ͽֵ֧ǰ£Щﷸ֮ԷȻ
ִĸȻڲ֪Ϊƫִ޿ݵء
Σȴǲɷϵʵ

.йˣûϣ̸˾

	2001꣬겻˥ˣУּϿֲ
ϮҺãšһһ֮󣬹͵ǣʼߣĳѰ
ˡ·ת޷ǾԭߵʵƲ˲ܲ̾
нգαصμҵǻԶգΣ֪ظܱȹ
ִúáֻȻģһѹضȹЩǲҪ̬
ȣ
	ڡ˵ĲҾҵһҶ֡ڰȻĶַ߼
й˻ΪùйƴáȷʵϿϢ
٣˳ɹWTOһ㣬߽籭Ͻ
ߡһעһǿλ˵ɵ͹
׾죩Ӱ˺ν˵ͷȻּ
ۿ磬йһܶ˵ù͵ùͷϣڶ
бгĸĪöһҪйԼʵ
ҲףһǶ㲻ȥģһйֻǡ֮񡱣
㲻ûҪʱʱ䵽Ϊĵزһһ༤
ɵͷ׾٣ʧܵʰǣ
ͬʱܼվ֮ĸ֮١ǰһй
˺͸ʶ֮ʿǰϾĿ顣߳һʧһ
ٲ
	һ༫ǳͽΪй˴Ӵ˰˳죬
һרĳϣһ·˳ʻ롰й˵͡ˡһȣ
ûдϣΪԼǼݳ˾ˡ˽
ûֿܣҲôϹ೵Ҫ˦£Ҫ˦
ˡһȥͶǶ10-15%ȴڷ
Ƶһⷿ˩˾ޱǳԵĵõŶ˵

(2001106ڱ)
