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 ġйʮײ

    ηйأܶ˵Ѿȫԭ
ϵĹˣٽһ˵޲׼˽׼ҲǴȽ
Ƚ׼ˣԣǲǴȷѾûʲô塣йΪ׼
ʮ޸ĵµŬУû˵׼κشͻƻ
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ײ㣬йڻûаͬʱȻ߲Ͽ£й
ٷ﷢һδʿӵľ۶ϣͶӶʱ
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춵ȼֻײṹо߻ϸߵĵλȼײ
еԽײ㡭ᾭõλһµ״̬ǵľ
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ǲάֲ䱾ȵλƣƺͼƻ
ƣһֱǾòϵĽײ㡣
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ָڸĸԭеļȵʧȥòϡ㶼
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ԱѰְҵѡڶĸ￪ΪײµĻ
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̨߳ЩȨǧټƱԼļȵ棬涨
ٷַˣһضԡǷʡͻһ
ַַѱķز˺ܴһ顣˵FԭΪĸ￪żʮ
ˣĸĹҪĸƶԣΪĸκβί
Ӧ֮⣬ͲҪרŲƶˡ֪ǡǡ෴
Ϸָĸﴥһ飬ͳάŻί档ԭ
ʡίֱƶĸˡ
    ڶӵС֪ʱĽײ㣬ǾǱеġԱײ
רҵԱײ㡱˽Ӫҵ͡幤ҵѧ
ĺ󱸾Ĺȥʮ꣬йײı仯Ī֪ʶӡйô
֪ʶӵĵλ֪ĵλǣӴѧʼ֪ʶ
ӶԼĳ·춻֪ڵʱԭʼһͨѧ
ϰͥͶѪǮ֧ѧѺѣΪŻ֪ɾݣ
һõ߻رɴǸıԭּ˲״ɧϣ
̬˵Ŀǰѧ֧Ԯйײ㣬һԵʵ
Էֹѹڴѧõ㷺֧֡ѧ˶ȷӣ
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ҲмƵǰһַǹҵɿƼԱɵĺ
ҵǳɳ󣬼ǲٽ֪ӵҶʱ󣬲Ȩ
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гðԲŻ̰ᡣְ뱻ĹϵѾ
йĻìˡǡ־ǿǶһǡйɫ
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;÷չǶȶִѾȡңйʱ
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ŵˣ˵ĻˮƽԲѵײ㡣Ҫ˵ܴ
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ͳûޱ֮ľ˽׼ҲûԼˡԣ
˶ΣȻԼǹ˽׼ȷӣʾûбԭּһ
ƶȫԼ1950ˣҵְʧҵԱ
Ҫڴ½ϹҵغԴݽ߿ɽ϶ĵ
1997𣬰й涨ṩÿƽÿϷ152Ԫ
йȽץƽײͼƶӰ졣

 塢йĻì

   ǣйѾ޳ͻۣ磬ʱҺ͸廧ǽ׼ٰ
ˣȻͬҵ˵Ľ׼ģϽУ
ʧҵҪʱʻ¸ڽʱԵ˭أǵһ
ײĸ߼Ա;ǡϰǣôվһأȥ˵
޲׼ʹѹȽ׼һ棬ڣ춾
Ľṹ춾ӪҵƲƲɹ¸ڻ첻
ʣԼʵѾ˱ѹȵĽײĶ棬ЦȻ˵
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ײṹԶԶԽĽۻµ͵طӳй
Ҫĸ￪ţҪ۴µĲԣ̱ðֻܵó
Ľۡߣϵһͷˮֻ䵽Լ
ӢԲ˵Ǿ͵ë󶫸صĸȥˡ
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ṫСײ֧ӵĸ￪ŵĴڰ
ĸ￪Žеף򹲲ûг·ֻб򵹻
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ƽҫ쵼ĸĸڶָֽ֧ͬĸﵫбȽ
׵ĲͬѡġFȥһ
ٳ̨شĸʩΪΪͨġ

 Certainty and Uncertainty(ȷ벻ȷ),׶ǧ

   ˶ԻìܵİվͲѶΪʲôСƽѲô
Сƽǰش⣺׶νãСƽ˵Ҫ
ʮ˵ķܶ Ǿǧꡣ⣬ʷģʽУʱҲУҪ
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Uncertainty, ǡ֪ԴĴڤ粻Ĺִϧ1
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˵ûаǴƸĸĸظȫĵصʮ·
ˣûΪɽˡƽһƽĵ·Ϊѽ
ˣְһӰˣйʮ껹?
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ηֲԼȦ˵ʮ׼ϣǰҪ˷Ķ
䲻ıĽۣΪֹƣⲻ֪ĶʦСƽë󶫷ġ
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ΪΪκͬĶ¶ʧȥλĻᡣ
   й߼һпȷȷë˼롢Сƽۣ
ּȷĽѧ˵һǵȻȷ·߷ߣԷֹĶ
ȷһΪȷ㶨ˣCertainty,л˵ġ֪ʵ
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д󲿷ʱڣǾȷȴǡǡǼȷͳΣǻ
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ڽʱӦóһֱ׼ǹԣѰж˼
Ӱ࣬ѾԤӰ˶õİ취ǰһλڼ
ĳЩشӣڲȫ෴ðһõԽԽѽ
ֽšȷɡģֻϵý
ƣʵϣƽɽˡ
   ⳡάCertaintyֱά־ƺϵ۵ìУ㴫˽
Լ֡ͻƾϢ˵ûмӹȥ
ЩطѾŵ ȷɿĽӰе
ѡ⣬ǻһǵıأϢĶ
οѧԺίǺйʮѡѡһС꣬
ѧ˾عϵοѧԺԺһֻѧ
߲ſεְϺͿѧԺڷ鼫࣬Ȼ
統ίԱ֮࣬ҲCertaintyɣϧһƴ̥
һѡٶûйء˵ôӰʡΪйֿԺ
ίǺҲֶͬһûеѡΪϯһĴɼ
ڽѵйͽ񣬲Ҫйδһǧ涨һ¼ҹС
ǿˣΪ˵ѾôõĻֻøãά
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ĸ￪ţйӳָĸ뷴ĸìܣҲ跨Ӧм
ı仯һֽơһ˵йƲһͳε޷
ԭķʽͳȥԨ֮ǰиἴļҲ
˵ũʧҵЩͲûо𣬶ֻд˷ĸ
йᷢȷөĿǰȽϰ״ũǷָģѾ
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ôգǾһû⣬йũҵũ̫ϤҲ̫о
ˡ
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ںũͨʹпܼУӶΪũҵԼ
ǿܵģйܷ涨عУ1992꣬ҵѣ
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Ȩ2030ʹȨǸıһ¸ƹܷͨ
ؾͨˡΪӦWTOĹսֻҪҵһ
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ǰǲԸˣʵӦòȫ͸ոһŽ
չҵǾͿԼֵ߲ţйְƻð
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ƷҲģгҲԶˡ4¼ҵػʵ
ؾ·ߣ·ũ԰ﻯ̶֮ߣ仯֮Ѹ٣ʹҾȺܡ
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ӹֹĸȻܵ´ũӵУٳУǣĿǰ
йͼũҵũƷṹũ߳ȥ¸
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ҪäĿйعȨԵͳ͵еͳԣӦǱо
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ǵİҪɿðա飬չԿʧȫ
ü廨ŵйԵΪʱ磬ðȥֻһ
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