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    ڽɣйѧԺũ巢չооԱΪڽڱѧ
԰ũϵ̸ϵķ塣 
     
    ҵһߡӦμһũֻᡣʱ
ƺӱߵй߲ܽڡڷйũϾ
˽йũţĵľǽȫũҵ˰Ѽ
ũͿ롣ʱ۵ú֣ԣȴ˵ˡ
˸绰˵һ仰ûнǲԼƽһζԻ
ҸƽµйũˣҼȲ֪ѧ
ֲǵȨߣûʸͬԻټҪȥᣬҾû
ǰҴۻָ˵绰˵ƽѾ
һηǳɹĽݣĿǰũڵʮ⣬ϵͳ
˽ֻѾ˶ƽųвͬҪ˵
͵ȨΪũ档˻˵ġΡ
Ϸĩ֮ΪšũԼ˵ģĿǰũ
һ£ǲǿ⡣룬ҲòӦ￪һ
С͵̸ᡣڼȻˣҾͽũũ״Ŀ
Щ۵ǰڱֵһйءΡֻϽ
еͬѧˡ˼һģֻϴҲؽν
ũ飬Ƿ۷ģص㽲ũ״ 
    ˵ʵǲͬѧߺרййũķš
ǲܽڡƺӱߵйƽڡ˵ʵ
ũһ˼룬ǼϣǿĹҼȵ
ŵòֹͣũİᣬũ񡣲ܽںЩԶ׿ʶ
μұֳǻũϢĽͬʱϣ֪ʶ
ǿѹʹȵߺ͵Ȩòƽһ֪δ֪
ʶӵΪũźʩɣʩɣ
ɣũȨɣũɣ
    ʵϣũ⣬뿪ũҰǲܵó
۵ġũ״ǵΪӦǽĻ㡣
Ŀǰйũ˵ũķ˵ũķ
õߺ֪ʶʶũ⡱Ҫмũ񸺵ĸ
 
    Ϊʲô˵ҽηΪҰв
ǣһ,ũ⡱ĺũΣũΣҪ
ԴνũΣ 
     
    һũĺũΣ
         
    Ӧ˵йתйũעĽ㡣
彨
    ǹ쵼ũԽΪĻںŵġ
ȡȨ󣬺ܳһʱڣرνġȻֺ
ũҰũȴûгΪһձע
⡣80ũ򼢶ƽµظĸũ
ܳԱӺũ塢ũҵũȴΪ˵ߺ֪ʶעĽ㡣
ΪʲôأΪһҪԭũصΣΪͻ
ı־ǣũ˴ģũ񷴿 
    ͬͶʮ쵼ũ˶Ҫںϡͽһ
ũֵũ񷴿еĻЩҵоҪ
ǺʡйҵܽӴĲʮʡ
ϡк汱ֹģũ񷴿¼У˵
ũ񷴿¼ж𣬽ϴģʮ𡣸ҵоЩ¼
¼ص㣺 
    һ¼ȽϼкȷЩ¼ľвͬеΪ
Ͻʱ˱Ϊ˵Ķ¼еǴΪԼĸ
̫أ˳֯ϷýͻеѡʱˡǷ
ΪҪʹȨϷãеڴΪ弶
壬ɲ̰ΪȡжȵȡӦж
žǡũ񸺵̰͡񹫿ơ 
¼ũǴӡšȫʵʡί[1996]9ļʵũ
񸺵һĿ˰ıġȼűڽʾģ
˶ص¼ 
    ڶ̶֯ߡũġߡͨʽ罻Ȧ
ѰҼ־ͬߣ͹Ҽũ񸺵ļΪʽչ
һȺڻ󣬳һ֯ʽԾ¼Ϊ
ȡжЩԷ֯С顱ίԱᡱ
ල顱еֻΪǸɡȵȡЩ֯һ
Ϊأͬһ֯Ҳвͬ˵ټȷ֯ļԿ
ͷķʽּ¼ҲְرǸˡΪҪ
˵ƾ˵ڸǷ֯ʵϣЩ֯ڲ
ΪܵģпԵظо֯쵼ߵĴڡ
ĵ´彭СũٿˣͨڴС
ʡйؼũ񸺵ļ˴񹫿Ͳ񹫿ȾҪ
õ˴ӵͷ18ϱ֤ÿһˣԸμӼ
Ĵٿ顣Ͼġֻ֯ơ
ˣĳټˡһ֯쵼£ġ¼
˽⣬ʡļ֯ҳƣǳ֮Ϊ
 
    һµũ䲢мĺЩũ
Ҫǣһʮʮ֮䣻Ļ̶Ϊϣ󶼵
ЩǵԱʹɲͥȽϸԣڵؿˮƽ
Ǵ󶼶ԹҼũ񸺵ߺصķһ˽⣬յط
ڴ¼Ļ̬ȡЩ֯ǸĻرǼͥ
Щ֯쵼һĲ쵼ũ֯Ծ
ʼڴﵱʦУ쵼רȨѧҳ֯ҹܻᡱ
פѧУѧУĿһ¼һ쵼˴ǴС鳤
ΪȺʹί14ηӳҪش쳧
ˮʧ⡣ⲻûнһЩɲԴ޼ҽ
޴ѺԴ֮󣬴޾̤Ϸ·Ϸ
˽˸ũ񸺵߾񣬲ʶһЩͬУ
ҲʹΪԼԩת֯ũչΪӰЩ
ԡΪںŵũˣڵغӰ죬˵һӦõ
ũıжũ񷴿¼Ϊ˱Щũ˶ġ
ũ¸عŴѶԲȺΧ
˶ɲίƿѺΪʣԽ¸
ظɾǰԴвũͷܱԣũֺ
ӡͭ࣬Ѹپۼ2000ˣ100ɾΧǧ˻׷Ժ
˰칫Һ͸ɲסլԴ֯񾯺˰Աɲ30ж
ھ«̶Ҵ塰ڿ˰ëԱʱ
ѶũΧ15񾯺͸ɲˣ10µ巣ֱ
磬ŽëｻжӲŵԽѡ 
    ģʽֱ90ũ񷴿
ҪʽдţɴϷá1995ЩطͿʼִģ
ᣬԸʾ빫ԱѪͻЩ¼
һפ¼Ǽ֯ũҪشԺ
ٿһƺƴġ˼̰ᡱġйزΪֹξۻᣬ
ɳʱ1000ˣϵǰĹ·þߡ
ũͻʹ˴ᵯԱ¼
ۺΪٿ˴ᣬ׽6ڴ
࣬˼ǧȺڷŭ˽ϴģͻȺڽĳ
һжԱˡ 
    壬¼дȾԡũ巢Щ¼״һطȾһ
طũ򽻽ʿͻ˾
Կʹϼ˶ũĽʿ
ũͨԿ˸Ѹظ򴫲鼰ȫ
ũıжر4879ɲ
סլ⵽Χͳ˽Ʋʧ޴Դǧũڡũ
Ĵˡƹ쵼£Ҫũ񸺵ΧԴţ
ίǼҳңǿнӹܵعİϪСѧѺɳֵ
͸糤ǵӰ£ڵİҲ㵳¼ί
˴󡢼ίĿȫߣίǱΧŹ򣬲·
ǰìܵɲۣɺܴӰ졣 
     
    ũΣĸԴ
        
    90йũģũ񷴿¼Թ͹˵
ʷǰġΪڴԾũ۾ʲôĿ
ѣٲȡֱӶԿĶʽЩ¼ȶľߴӰ
죬ʹִߺѧ粻òעũ塢ũҵũ⡣Ȼִ͹
Ҳȡ˴ĴʩȡԵЧʹһΪ˹͹
еͷʹ⡣Դ¼ԭʮָӡ 
    һũͻӾ硣 һΪһľϵһġ
ĿǰйũͻҪֳ磺1ֻһ棬ҡ
ũ乤Աũ񣬶Ϊ˾ж塣һ
棬ȷȡʶǳȷ˽Լڡ 2
ͻı滯ֱӱʽũ񸺵ء90ȫΧ
ءطձĲΣתΪ˰ѡ̯ɵũ
ϡңũƶӾ硣ھϣܵǿ߿ơ
г԰ͼԵƣũҵѾһֲҵũݹ
ͳƾֵı棬ũĻϵ19780.21240.3361죬Ҳ
ԶԶڳе(0.16-0.295)ңڳеƶ3
ͻƽṹԣֲɵ͵̬ơ˵ͻƶȵĽ
Ϊ˼ǿũĿƣŬ뵽򣬽˳ģ
ɲ顣Ҳеǵķáһ棬Ҫǿ
ũһ棬ҪֹǿĻũ
Ƶİᡣͳͻ󶼱Ϊũ֮ìܣӢ
ڵ͵м˽ɫǹڵͣм˵Ľɫ 4ͻ
ⲿڣũͻѳԽũũҵΧ
ΪũĳͻũƷϵг֮ĳͻ 
    ڶȨκΣһȨṹ
仯УҵĿֱ仯Ҫָ
ĿǰйũȨ񡣾Ϊ1ɲĺϷ
ܵɺսΪǿͳΣȨڱȨĺϷܵʱ
ǿȨά򣬻õ෴ЧȨ
Աһȡ˵ȨΪ˻άתԴչ
µӶᡣȨܵǣͻһԵļж
ֻеϵĳͻȷʽֳһȨṹ
ʱжŵԷĿǰũȨṹУŹȨ
㵳ȨԼطȨڳ̬УȨΪҵĴߣȨ
ڽṹĺλãȨԣطȨڱԵȨڻ
ڴĶũֺΪȨĺϷͻܵǵĻɣ
ȨͺȻؽǵҰΪѰȨıĴʶ
жҪǣЩܽ֯ĵطȨͻѸ͡
ˣҪʹƶȨṹҡҪһأЩ
Ҫھշ¼ĿǰũΪշ¼㵳
ɲʹְȨʱĲȡʧΪ˶˵غ
 2ڶʢУͨ;ͷʽũȨ
֯ĵåƦŻںڶ뵽ũȨ
⣬һר顣ҵҪַʽһ
쵼ҡͺƵѡ٣Ǿ˵
ջξӢġɱ䡱Щڶ뵽ũȨ
 һáȨĺϷѹũ񣬳Ϊˣһֲȡ
ʽԿũȨһʱΪκ;
¼3ڹȨ֮γµȨ֯һ棬ũȱ
Ļ֯δũ֮伸ûκ֯ġ
Ļ塣һ棬ַʽ֯Ѿ֣ڹȨ֮γ
Ȩ֯ĿǰҪУΰöֵũ֯
Ե֯֯رũ˴֯ũˡ
ܻᡱͬŻᡱ˰ȹᡱũרԸߡȵ
еֱӽаᡣЩ֯ʮָӣ󶼾дͳ֯磬е
֯ȷĿġ 
    ʶѾγɡ֪ͨʶŬйũıѾ
ʾũܵ԰Ϊ˹ʶΪȹ 
ũūۡζţũ⣬ͨƲܽ
ҪǣЩйũ񴦾֪ͨʶӢڡĿ
ǰũȱͬǰ;ʧۺ᲻һ
쵼ԴĻƹ˵ֺɲũ
ĸģվ˹жĳƺš 
         
    νũΣ
         
    йũΣǿ͹۴ڵġʵϣΣ¡µ
ѧĬ(R. K. Merton)˵йΣԤΪľ
̬ȶΪʵֵԤԡΪ˲ʹΣʵ֣Ŀǰֽ
      
    һҶԲߣ˰Ѹĸ 
    йתԴΣĻ̬Ҫõľװ
רֶΡʷˣͷƳΪҺϷԻ
ʱ߳ʷȦôΪйũ巢չĹҲȡЩʲô
ЩΣأĿǰҪõĴʩĸ棺1ͼͨ˰
ĸṹ˰ķΪʲôʵвˣҪȫũλ
еķ˰վѣЩշ൱ÿŰԪҪũ
ҵ˰Ӱٷ֮ߵٷ֮˵塣ҪǱÿ겦ٵԪ
ũ㣬ڹʩʺ֧ Ѹ˰
ѣڰ΢Ѿֹͣ Ѹ˰ʧܵҪԭ
ĶԪ޷֧ľ޴֧ڹҲһ񶯵
ޣ޷Ҫ2ͼͨĸԼмײ
ǿơ粢򣬾ǹȴûа취Щ˶
ɲ3ͼͨũµĹơȨ
ǽͻϵģˣ䱾Ҳͱ˳ͻҪݡ4ʶ
̬棬ᳫͼԴԼɲȻֽϣ
ȨߵʡԼϵĸĸǷЧʵѾ֤ˡ 
    ֪ʶйũĽкܶࡣУũߴ
ԡйġһָһҸ
ڵҵڹҵͬȴ⣬ָҪ
ũũڳеͬȴ⡣ûд
ΪйȷڳԪ룬ũλҲߡֻҪǶ
ľĿзǾͻ֣ᷢũʵһ
α⡱һֱ滯ĳڸйıʡʵϣЩ
ƻʱγɵġũҵԱеġѾʲô
ˡΪڳĹͶ˵Щٵÿġ
ѱĸĵˡֻЩȨڸ̶Ⱥ͸ΧͶߴ
Ƹϣ˵йûһȷľйͬ
־ĹȺ壬ֻƶͶӵʱȨȨߡҲûʲô
ֻȨߵĴ˺ũһȨߵѹȺͰᡣ
ȨʱͶİᣬйıʡ 
    ˵Ŀǰ֪ʶӢŵġũţҲũ
ԼҪģũңĹؼڣҪũ
˭أȻȨߺЩ֪ʶӢˡҲ;ũ
ܽйũΣ 
    ۵㣺֯ũ񣬿չһ˶ 
    ˹÷ɪ˶Ϊ淶ĺͼֵǰڵĽʽ
Ųü 
    ǵϴйġũ⡱רʿ˵Ҫйũ
⣬ֻýܽмҵĸΪĿǰй
ũ岻ܲһµĸΪȱũɷԴػȨ
ܳΪǰĿꡣҪʵȫĲƸٷ䣬Ҫıҵĸ
򣬡桱ʹȨΪĺϷܵɣǿľѸ
ػָ򡣴Ŀǰйũƶһбڴͳʽ
˶ҲǱȽǵѡڣҪЩʲô˭ƶĸ
      
    ΪҪũαƣҪũԼ˵ҲҪ
Ա֯ũ񣬽ũ֯Ҫũγȵ漯
Чĵ      
    αƣҪݣһıڵ
ʽơﲻǴһΣҪǳ
ʵΣм֯ҪһµŵҪ
֯ر֯˶塣УϵĴũ
ũΪũ֮Ļ塣ӢΪἯŵ̶֯Խߣ
Ἧ֮ԻɱԽͣЭĿԾԽ󡣸߶ɢȺ
ܵҥԺа̵Ĺƻ󣬲׳Ϊ˵Ļң
ũѧ׸ķɢũǡߡ
֯ũǸǱߵͨũ
ɢũ֯ũԻɱͿԴ󽵵ͣũԸͨ
򻯵֯õһЩͻ¼ҲԵõ͵⡣ 
    ȻũӦũ֯ʮǰǧҾ彨
˶ΪũʱΪũ֯Ӧǣһ
ܴũ֮ġǳйũн׼ֻĻ
ũ񵱾ǵ븻ũƶũũһũڶ֯
¶ϵġǳйȨǵطȨڴ
ǵĻ֯Ǿϣ쵼뷢ġ
һԷ֯϶µģͨġ
֯Ӧ糱ġڵѾǹıչص磬Ӧ
·Ѱڵ÷ǳԡʩĿ˶Ȼвͨһ
ҲΪʱΪġӦ糱Ҫݾǿ
Ӧý˳ơԵĺ;Եũ֯ũû
ȨǶǺܿµġ  
    ҪũԼ˵Ҫ֪ʶӢԼΡղķ˹˹ڡũ
ĵ徭ѧǵķ桷˵Ǳڵļũ˶֯Ƿ
ɣƺҪȡԵõԴܷȷʵԱеҪȡ
ⲿӢĳ̶ȡصУƺΪ
Ҫûⲿһطɻپͻᱻȴ˵ġڲ
֮СΪĻڲгݵ˼ڡ·
ð͵ʮա˵Сũڶ࣬ǵͬǱ˴
䲢ûзֶĹϵǵʽʹǻཻʹ
롱ڸСũ˴˼ֻеϵͬһ
ʹǱ˴˼γκεĹͬϵγκεȫԵϵγκһ
֯Ǿûγһ׼ͱ֪ʶӢҪ߽
е˽Ʋ࣬ҪرǵȨ߱֯ũ
ţͨ֯ũսǱһ׼Ŀǰǿ
ǵũȥũ֯ҪΪũ֯ṩ
ͬʱƶũᷨݹ80ѧύŷ
ݰһũᷨĽݰ 
    80ǰй֪ʶں˵йΣʱһ
ȴǱͼ߽˺ϵũͽİԴշ쵼ϸ
ǳũ˶ë󶫡˵ũй
ϲͱʡ籩꣬Ѹ쳣ʲôѹ
ֲסǽһǵŽŵ·ѸܡȻһ
͹ȥˣʷҲѾ֤йũûеõšԭأ
ҪЩ֪ʶӢũһ 
    µˣҪʱˣҪũԼҪũ
˵
