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  ڡġ꼴֮ʣΧŶ԰˾˺͡ġ¼ķ
ۣһҵ硣
  ֽϵǳı⣺찲֮Ѫܲܲ
  ⻹˵𣿵ȻܹйǹɱѪǹ
ȻͲѪ
  ⲻڴĴ𰸡ΪߵʵǣʾѧǷӦ
ھӿǹѹ֮ǰ찲Ź㳡ӶѪ
  ͬǼ򵥵ģǡżǿɱ¼˳ӵ
κηɱ֮¶붼ᷢս꣬йǧǧ
򣻼ҶֿЩ½Կɱȫ
  ֪Ȼ⣬һҪдȥǱҪġ
Ƕ԰˾˺͡ġ¼зʱڸ־ж
ͬĿܷܲйɱһ׮ˡУ񷴿רȡ
쾭ȨԴӵʷ¼󲻼СǲģС
㡣



  ʮաŦԼʱУñפPatrick Tylerдⳡ
۵ġһǣڼȽǷ򼤽ǿӲòԼ
ϼѧǷΪϽʾƻѧǼþնʤĻ
ᡣ
  һ⣬һڲ⡣ڰ˾¾ɽɽ
һֻϣλ˱ѧСһһۣ԰˾
ʧ˳ķھ¡ʮ£ҷһƪֵĳġ
˾˷˼(춡й֮־)ָ˾˵Ҫʧδ
ܡþաѧ߹Ⱥڳܷյ߸׼ȷ
˵춵͹йֵĲ̶̳ȣʶ˶ʧܽ(ƪ
׾й˷˼һ飬۵ţѧ춾Ŷ³)
֪ں⻹ڴ½ڲ˳кƵļ⡣Ҳҿ
˵ֹ۵ѳΪ˽˵Ĺͬۡ
  ʮաŦԼʱ˼ѧ»ĻΪ
ǳ㳡»ǳ򵥡ԻѲɱ˺Ⱥ
⻰ǷȷΪҪѡʱйʱ̣ռ
Ϸ磻ʱζ˵ʤɴ˿Ұ˫Իľ档
һЩʱ̳룬ЧͲϵ˶ĩڣȷʵ»
˵ʱܿʤ춡Ϊܱȡ
Ժáйһ⣬ڡ˼һиϸµķȤĶ߲
ġ
  ʵЩ죬ɡձ͡ŦԼʱۣ
佹ѾTyler˵Ǹ⡱㳡ϵļǷѹ
ɶƻ˶þյʤᡣŵĻǣѧ
ڹ㳡ϾЩʲôǵĳЩУ춶ǵƷ£
ۣ



  ֽϿ˲ڰ˾¶ʮһ¼Ӱɷеλ˵
ʵڴľѪҪʱԸĹ
Ҳֻڹ㳡Ѫɺӵʱȫйز۾
ǲŽֻôͬѧ˵ʵԼ
׼ڹ㳡ϼȥҲġΪҸҲ
һ˺ˡҾ롣Ҳ֪᲻˵˽ʲôģ

  ձ͡ŦԼʱƣ̸ǡ״ιǡ
ȥδġʵȻڰ˾޶ٰ桢Ĵηеġ찲
šһŰ˾šһ(ģ̨塶ϱ༭࣬湫˾
)вƪ¼ӰȫģԼǧ֣оǰΡ⣬ھ
³ġChildren of the Dragon(ӢģйȨ࣬Collier Books
Macmillan Publishing Company)һУҲλ¼Ƭ찲
Ƭ˿(Carma Hinton)ҽ˵νȥδָ¼
ӰָûбӻӰʹù˵ûʽ
ǿŮʿڡChildren of the Dragonһλ
ҿǰȣ񹫲λνܸġҲ
̸ϡȡ塱ȻרżλУĶЧܻͰ
ǷȫʱһǼκժ¼޷ģʲΪ֣
㲻ʲôë
  ֽ֪ԡ״ι忯λ֮ᣬ൱һ
߸е𾪺ͷ߿ԭ£ôֻܽǣȻ
Щǰ͹(СӢĶ)Ϊʲôǵ𾪡߿
  ֿԭɣ¼
  1ȻӡνСܾܿ˲
ˣ춯أ춷Ĵڴý(ӡֽ)ÿ˶˶
൱㷺˽⡣ⷴʹôΪûȥϸϸıҪ
Ϊ˱ʷϣżһ£ѵ׽˵ִ˵һ
ص㣺֪⡪ֱӾרҵ֮⡣

  2鼮ȣڴý(ӡֽ)ӰĹ㷺ϣԼڶԽߵ
д̼ϣͬնǣһ£ֻҪϱֽϵӡ
ȻǴֽ̨Ͳʲô䶯ķӦ
  3Ҫǣʱʱһ˵Ľ˱仯ȥҶ
йֵޱȷ߿Ͷʾѧڵо֮ͬС
ձǿ£ЩйڲĸϢͨᱻǵȻ֮һᵽ
ᣬǱ뵽ΪָӼع㳡뵽ǹ֮
ǧʾ᳷ڡע⵽ǶΡڴѪԼ
еĳ󣬵ͨҲ˶ѡǵľ
˱仯ӰܴıֽӢıֽͬʱ£ר˲
Ͳܲһ߲ǿҵķӦ



  һϸµķ

1춡ܲԡ
  
  ŦԼʱдڷ̸˵쵼Ĺ㳡ָӲܲ
(hidden strategy)ǣԱԴ޴ѧ
  ܲԡһʿܻص⡣Щ߻Ϊڲ
һ˼ǡܲʾ˵̼ͨƻ⣬
ǾΪԭɱ¼Ȼѧı׷󡢿
Ϊǲȷġ
  ҿ´ԭ֮һں̶ܴӢִʻĲ
졣strategyӦսԡԣӢУstrategyӦ÷ΧҪ
ĵġսԡԡöࡣƵӻpoliticsphilosophyȡ
˳йֻһ¾ΪpoliticsĵġΡ
һܴĴʡ˵hideen strategyܲԣϹ޲
ɣһĶĿص룬Ӷ²ݺӵ
ᡣʵ޷ָһֲ㹫뷨ѡڹ㳡ֽ
ӵ£ѧǵ˼벢ȶҪ˵Ͱбһ
ȷܵĴƻȻʵ

2춡ڴѪ

  ˵ʵڴľѪʲô˼أϾڴͬ춵
ڴΡ֮⣻ȴǴԵģڴȴʾǶڴ֮
ĳ̬ȣԸǼ·˵ڴѪ
ôʲΪΪֻй㳡Ѫɺӵʱȫйز
۾ŽղǵĽͣڵʱ£Ҳ⵽ɱ
Ҳ⵽ɱùŵɱù̵ִɱ
Ϊ߻ỽڣķνڴѪָڴڹ㳡
ѪⲻѪ벻Ѫ֮ѡ񣬶ʲôʽѪ֮ѡ
ˣҪ˵ҪܹѪʱȥ跨⣬Ҫ̼ɱ
Ѫδطϲı⡣

3춡ñѪԼ

  ôΪʲôͬѧǽڡڴѪأòԼĻ
˵ǣҺѶͬѧ˵ǱѪڡͬѧǿ϶Ը
˻ĺӡ(ʹ)֮ΪýΪ
Ľ϶ͬѧǸԸΪѪѪûʲô¡
ҪȾ͸ǱѪڣȷʵѽóڡ
  ˵ԼΪԼҪľٵ
ΪԼΪ䣬ƱҪ⵽һͬѧصöĴҪܡ




  ϣҾͬĽǶȣԲĽΪͨĽ͡룬
Բὲ𾪺ͷ߿Ķ߶ᷢ鲢էһ
ȥôءⲢζŲĽԼ˵

  ȣΪѧ䣬϶ͬѧǶиΪѪľģһ
ѪΣüޣҲӦȷؽΣոߴҡսϣָӹʱ
սֵնʿƽԷǱ˶ײͬսȺ
֯쵼ȺڵĹϵҲ;ָӹʿĹϵһ(һ
˼һнøϸЩ)
  Σͬ⣬ȫĿǣǿȱİȫͨ
ҪȷԼ֮ϡҪǣ䲻ְض
֯䣬춲쵼㳡ͬѧǵֱΣԶܵ޲ɣ
ֱεôأ
  Ϊ塤¼Ӱ绤ʱὲ¶ʮһվʳָӲһ
顣ʱѧϤҪǿ峡ϢΪ
ֶһμ߲ôҪǹͷ񡱣
ԱȥΡʵϣ˹Ҳĵ뿪˹㳡ûʲ
ôֻˡ˵һְضΪȽпԭĻô
塤˵±ʾͬͼһˡΪ塤˵
ѾعƵһҲؽشû˷񶨲
ȨµǣΪ㳡ʾߵֱ䣬Ƿ֪Σ
ȫԱѪȴΣƸ䲿òյ
¶ʵЩΣùͬѧıѧ
ǣγֲֻʹΣռеԼͷأ
  ǵģͶ˶ǹ֮һ㳡һȻվ
ǰСⶼӦóֿ϶ġǣܽһʱһȥһ
˵ƷۡǷҲһĴȷΪȥ
һĲȷΪ



  ʵڹ㳡ϣѧȽѧ֮䷢
ͻ硣Ϊ漤ɵʧ߱绤ɴϹ㳡йʲôֲ֮
˵㳡ֻȨ֮ǵ˵㳡ϵĸ·Ӣû
˶ĳɰܵʧûںڵɰȫеֻȨͷ绤
˷ݣȲ绹Ҫ㡣
  ڷѧĴʱһҲɱʣ
Ҷ仰׼ȷָ˼ѧڡʣ
ڳ̶ϣϣѧ¼ζйֵǿ
ӲɲᲢۣ޿ɷϵҲȷʵΡ
  ˵ǲӦֲᡢ»⼸λѧ䣬ܹͶ
춷רƵ˶ѾܲˣοǻֻǶʮͷĺӡ

  Ҳֱͬ绤֮ʡܼ򵥣֮Ҫᡢ»ǰ
ǵͨͨ꣬ǰǵ˾˵Ҫ䡣ҪȻ
Ӧͬ춶һڵҪһ˲ֻҪͷΡȨӰ
ܾеΡ֪ᡢ١죬ͲȥǸ
λãҲͲȥ֧õǸλáȻǸλã
ȻЩûзȥõǸλãôһ˲ԼЩ
֧ǱҲԡᡱ족Ϊ绤ͽȨ
Ӧ֪йȨʱҲֻжʮ꣬·߸й
ص𺦡δԡᡱΪɣ˵ʲôܲμӸͺܲˡ
ƶ
  ˾ѧΪȵ˶ǰڣصɱֻһЩ
ѧϡʤΣָʧпԭġ˶
ڣѾ˱仯ʿ׷Ͷ룬Ըе쵼߲ˡ
ЩѧԸʿָ(ȷʾڴε)
ͼǸ˵Ρᡢ»ȴ˵Ϊָӣ
һҪȨЩͶɡռλߵĽΣһ
塤һһ塤ˣ˼ƻһȡóɹΪᡢ
»˵ļԣ̬ųһӡȻѧں
о㳡쵼Ȩʱ˿Լᡢ޾ǫã
ôȵˣôԡᡢ޾顱ΪǴԲأ
  ΪԼ㳡ϵҪһ˵Ǿʳ
İ˼ĲΪֱȱ˵ȣڹ㳡ϣÿ
ҪȫԱĽݲὲ塤¼Ӱ֮ǰָӲ
飬ӼĽǶȣָӲ쵼ԱӦȥΡȻ
ͲɾʳȫԱָӲλѧԼġУ
˵ôܸǣڴľѪʱġǡָ
ѧСڴѪһȷͼġǡֻǲָӲ쵼
ԱΣЩȫԱĽҲ˵ÿһ
еöǰЩĴĳһţЧӰ˹۵ˣ
Ҫһ˷˸ӶҲͱһ˸иΡ



  ڡ˾˷˼УҶԼ˷ʱҲûۼ
˵ĵ覴áһΪʱȱ㹻ʵϣΪҿ
ǵ˶ɰܵǾߵǿμҵθлԻ
дʿλʹʶθУ˶
ɹˣҶǣ˶ʧˣҶǣ˶ǳ
ܣʿоԼʲôҪгɹ˶
һǴԼʧмȡѵҼֶһеɨ˵Ĺ
ʱҲûκλɹ໥ñԹǣվܻر
ҪĹҲûаνƸѧ䡣Ϊұ
ˡֻҪһڰ˾еı֡Ҫ淴ʡע
һЩżҲؼ֡˾ĩڣ޵̨
̨ϢϢѧһӰ죬ۼЭ
˾ġ񲻻ǡһУǽ³Ϊۼ߾޴ɼ
е۵㡱֮ϣ˸塣ΪʲôǵļѧǾͲϷʡ

  »˵һٻЩӣ˼ǷӦɱ֮ǰ뿪찲Ź
Ҿ뿪Ҳʲôôûأ
˶ע˻ʧܣѪҲһ˭ʿ䣬
һߡ֧˵ͨϰա۵𣻶άϵ
˵ĵصġߣ㲻ܰѳ벻ֻ֮޶ɱ
֮ǰʱ̡Ϊڴ֮ǰֹֹһεʱʹܹӮüþ
յʤǻʹ˷ʧΪᡣ԰˾˴һʼ
עʧѪĽ֡ˣĳ˸ĸﵹæ޹
һЩԭȵļҪת޳Ȩ壬תΪ˵ȡˡ
صĽۡһͻӡйذ˾Ƿй
þյĻᣬڡ˼һϸķȲ׸ҿ»
˱ʱ濼ǹ˵֤



  ҲⳡУЩ߲⣬ǲͬǵ
˵ǵĵˣôұ˵ʵںҪĵˡΪΨ
ǲѰǵë£ʹʱѣѸٵؾ
Լʧ󡣹\{}ߺϣ˿
ѡͬģЩѿĵˡΪ̫谮̫Ϣ㣬
ͷ㡢㡣缸λѧǰͶԴ˵
ǶƹƲ㣬ῴǽܱ˵ţĳһǡʱ
㳡˶ĽҲһЩ˵Ǹ߶Ƚŵ
ԼҲйңйһʱʧԻʧְǵк𺦣
нյı
  ʿﲻֻйҪ˻ЩǿʶĻԸ
ƺδػ⡣ʿöൽȺһ
һ˶ЩʲôӦһԼܷ˵ñŷ޷ڸ
ԼĹ˭ѡûѡרơ㶮ˣΪʲô
®ɽӷ󡱱ɷңΪĽ׼˺ɷ
ӽڵڹеȱ壬ΪάΰĹ
ȱʧ˲Ϊ˷ʸڷȷȱʧ
ǵȱʧⲻԵ̬ȣҲǶǵҵε̬
ȡ˵Щͬͽʵˣϵף
ۣ֮ǵȻ͸ȡˡ



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ԼĹ۵㣬ҲûлóɹΪڹ㳡Ѫɺӵʱȫй
ûԤڵŽ෴ǳ˸صĿ־塢
ָϿѹȿ϶Ҫ˶Ǽʴ
Ӣ塣ʹѵĴʱһ
ֹ۵㣬Ԥ֮ڿ̨ȻδܰѼ˼ά
߼ΪԽǰì򼫶˱Խĳ׽ʵ֤
ôסڡġĽ죬һۡλϾ
Ľʦȿԣὲ⡣ǵǣӹȥȡ棬δ
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  ڿŵĻ£ģҲǱҪġΨоۣǲſ
ʶҲܵĶ¹۵ζѾ
ˡһֵ깲ͬͶ˾˵м䣬ΧŶ԰˾˵ۣΧ
ŶǶʷ˴˵Ĺ۵㡢ͣ飬ƺнн
Զ֮ơⲢȫȻġȻʱӽƵԼ
ԷԷƫִйءҲеķͶȲ
ܣҲӦáǣٿΪԼһҪһ׼֪
Ȩһ˵ʽҪʶذӰ졣׼
岻ʹκʱܽز󣬵ָʾʲôǺõģʲô
õģʲôֵᳫʲôֵᳫΪҲǽĻ
һҪݡ

ʮ

  ˾ʷϼΰһ˶Ȼشȫ
ǵġڶ԰˾۵ǣγ
Ǻʹһر͸жǲԼǷʥ
ôǾûɶм񶨡
  ˾Ҳ޵һ档ǣ˵һʷǻ
ܲģΪһʷʷ˹ĲʷĴҲʷ
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ش¼һʱĳˢĥ˾˵ĸϸڣֻ¼򵥵
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