һձֵ


ǡɭ


    һžŰ꾭ѧŵ߰ǡɭǽŴѧһѧԺԺ
ѧڡƪһžžӡµ
˶ۻϵݽ˴λɹᡢӡȲҵ
µо׵¡ŵ׳İ
ǡɭɵķչһ飬꾡˱ĵ۵㡣

    һž죬ձһҪֽңʮͷҪ¼ʲ
һ˼ϵ⡣ȥһ귢˲Ҫ¼ʮ
һЩŷ޵۹رӢ۹ͷ۹˹ɴ
ʢ˥(ǰ-ŷ)Ҹı(
)Ҿ֧λ羭תΪձǡǾиƵ
羭áȻĿǰһЩں;ϵ⣬Ⲣûиıʮ
羭õַչ(ձľת仨˽һʱ)ȥһ
ȷҪ¼
    ˣڶʮͳֵĸչУҺѵѡһʱڵ
ҪչⲢ˵ķչҪΪңԶ
δع˱ͷ¼ʱǻ֣ᷢƳΪռƵλ
ʽҪĵλ    ĹȻԴǧǰĹϣ
ӡڵһЩҲйһЩǵԣĹȷʵγ
ϣңϣΪȨȡ֮ǰأ
һ޳̶ϸʵطûгֹκʽƶȡ
    ΪһֿƶȣǸ˺ܳһʱ֮ᣬ
ֲʤУ¼ĸգһһ
ӢĴ˶ʮ͵ķʮŷ޺ͱ
ѡȨȻʮͣųΪκιӦеġ桱
ʽŷޡޡ޻ޡ
    һձƶȣһǳӱʵǶʮ͵Ĳ
ôƹȨӢǣȫΪطԵҪ֮
£׷սʿͷߣΪһձƶȵķչ׼
󣬵ʵҪĺȻǵطԵģЧϽ춴Ը
ľáʷΪ
    ʮͣۼĳǷơǺ
Ȼ¡ֻڶʮͣ۲ŷ仯ۼʶ
һ⣺ҪжĳǷƣ෴ұ
ͨƲӦҪ÷ΧչвͬʷĻ
ԣ̶ȵʮˣȷһ˵ı仯
    ڱͣ춽ܡг˵ѡȨгˡ
˻ŮˡһҼһλǳŮ----ʿͳ¶˿
׷˹ʹһķ֮һǰʿŮûͶƱȨ
ʶձԾһûƵġ
    ҲϣձԵ˵ܵԸַ򡢲øʽս
ҲǱ۵֮һҲòһձֵĹ۵㼰
ص֮ۡǰһҪʶѳΪһִ
Ƶλ
    κʱᶼһЩƵλǾԳеԤ(d
efault)ָ飬һӦձصĹ򡣳ĳַʽȷؼԷ
ǵһ㱻Ϊȷġ
δȫҲδȫƵ£ѱձΪ
һȷƶȡڮͷˣȫƵλ
    һʷԱ仯ǲ֮ǰŷģʱʺ޺ͷ޵
춾ľءȻгЩطƵչ
սǱǰȣձĹ˶
仯ĳ(Ϸǡկ)Ƿơ⣬ʮ
͵ĻзǳУʱȴÿζͷʼΪΪ
Ȼ¡ʶһձʺϵƶȣڳΪһձ
ֵ˼ʷϵһΰҲǶʮ͵Ҫ֮һ
һձֵʱĴ󻷾

ӡȵľ

    ʵЧΣû˻Ӣȹ
ĺãĹңȻһĻ⡣
ϸ̽ʷ¼ΪʵЧ൱á
    ӡȵȻ۵Ҫս֮һӢڷӡȶʱǳӡ
˹Լҵӡһʱ״ȷʵǳҡӡ
ȱ飬״̬ȶϲʣձ屩ᶯ
ҡǶӡȻΪһͳһȱġᣬԺƽ
ֶνӡƣʵЧ൱áηҪͨ
ѡٺ͹֯ӡɸֲͬɷݲ
ңȴΪһελ൱áȷʵͨʵ
Ϊһ塣
    ӡȵ澭صսЩսԺͶڽ̵
ڽ̺ϵĲͬױãȷʵһЩܵ
(·¼)Ӷȫļ󾪿֡ʵϣɱ
ľ֣ܵȫײǴΪṩҪ
ϡӡһɷݸӹҵǷǳҪıϡӡ
ҪĽӡȽ̣ӵ˹ֽͽ
ͷͽԼһ˽ͽͽǽͽ

뾭÷չ

    ǳ˵ҵľ÷չٶȸ졣ֹ۵ᳫ¼
ǰҫʱΪϼ˵ȷϺ¼º͸ĸ
йȨҵľ÷չٶȣӡȡӡ˹ӵȨԽ
ĹҡȻϼĸһЩǾ飬ͷǳѡԵϣ
ǶԷΧ㷺ϽеձͳоݷǳѡԵϣ
ܽձϵǲܰ¼»йĸپΪȨҸ
ܴٽ÷չġȷ֤ݡͬҲܸݷ޵޲
ʮ侭ʾӷ޵һȫҲǰéó෴ۡ
ҪиϵͳԾоܵóۡ
    ʵϣûпŵձ֤ݿ֤ȨͳκѹȨ빫Ȩ
ȷʵ춾÷չձͳϵȷ֧ۡ޲ء(Rober
t Barro)ǵ˹(Adam Przeworski)˵ϵͳԾо֧
Ȩ뾭÷չͻĹ۵㡣֮Ķϵȡ
һЩͳѧоߴһ΢ĸعϵһЩо
ȴǿҵعϵۺϿеıȽо֮Կ
֮ܿܲκηȷϵȻɱΪ
ҪߵĹϵⲢûлý
    ⻹漰ѧоĻ⡣ǲоͳѧϵҪ
о뾭뷢չйص̡춵¶ǹҾóɹľߺ
൱͸˽⡣ܸ־овͬص㣬
һϵ춾÷չߣѧй㷺ĹʶЩ߰ž
ùгͶʺͳڵĹߣˮƽĻɹظĸ
Լ뾭÷չ̵ᡣȻûɼ裬Щ
ͻϺ¼ºйȨֶǿѹ
ѹԵ֤֤ٷչҪһѺõľûһ
ƶȡ
    Ϊȫ濼⣬Ǳ볬Խľ򣬿ľ
÷չ󣬰ԾᰲȫǱ뿼Ȩ빫Ȩ
ͷֹ֮ĹϵȨ빫Ȩʹһûᣬ
עͨڵҪȡʵĴʩѵķӦ
ȡܵѹͶƱѡ١Ȩı֣ȷʵܹ
ṩһͬιơ
    ط۹һҪɣ˿ֲ缢ʷϣ
Զλκңδļġɣ
κεطҲ⣬ĵİǡȶ
ùңʮĵһһһԾʧ
󼢻ĵйͳʱڷĵİӡȡ
й¾÷չӡȺõö࣬йȻģȷʵȫ
ʷصļġйһһһļĶǧˣ
ڣйĴһֱòԭйûе
Եûųɣûж൳ѡ١û˸йʹ
ÿˣȻܹȥڱյļҲ

    ƺȻֺйϵۼҾ򵥵Ȼֺͷ
ĵԭйڴԾڼ䷢ˮ֣ǷǬ߱
ũǸաȻҲƵصȻֺ
ȡĸԤʩڵļƵؽ˼⡣춼
ĵҪܺˣͨӶƻ˵룬ʹ
ܺߵõʳӶֹڵһЩغ֡ˮֵֵ
ƶңһӡȣʮڵĽͲΤ򲩴ɣ
ҲܹԱӣûгּġ
    ֻҪŬĲԤһѡ١Ե
ֽ£ֻӡڶ֮ǰӢͳεʱ
ġҼǵӡһμһ֮꣬ǰ꣬ҵʱǶ
ͯӡȳֶ൳ƺ֮ᣬľʧˡ
    ҵоرҺã(Jean Dreze)ĺо
⣬ҾͲࡣԽ֮һ
෽׷ӡڷֹѷ棬Ȩ
Ȩձɫ£Ҳỳֹ
Ϊĳԭ򣬾񻯣ƶеιƣͻᷢ
޴ʵá
    һҪѵרιгƶȿṩù
Ƶͬʱȴιơѡһ鼫Ļһ
ߺˣûֺвһзչ˳ʱǲỳ
ܡû仯ʧһƺǽĹ
ҾǱȫΣԡ
    ǺͶǳֵ⣬ǲƶȴĳͷ
ԡȣϺ̩ӡȹĽΣЩҵҵȱ
͸ȣرȱڵļලءһΣĺԭ
ȱһЧ̳ΣһΣȫ澭˥ˣӡȹ
Ǿرıܣҷֹĵֱܡڷ
ңܺûеطǵ
    ȥʮЩҵľÿٷ֮ٷ֮ʮ
ֵٰٷ֮ʮƺ⡣ĸûб㷺ط
ǼڳСһʧҵ߻߱ϣ˥˾ͻ
ƻʹ춱Ҿءھʱӡܲ
ھΣķֵܲƽȵĹңȱʹǷ߸
ûҪıʱŻǿҵػ

Ĺ

    ĿǰΪֹĵķߡǾ÷
ķΧҽĻߵ۵㡣Ҫһ
£Լ˵һձֵĸݡ
    ʲ᣿Ǿܰͬ춶ͳΡݺܸӣ
ȷͶƱѡٽɣطɻ
ۣͷź͹ʱļ顣ͬɱûлóֻ
ԼĹ۵㣬ѡûлź˼ͬ۵ɣѡҲһ
ƭ֡һϵͳڹѡĳֻеԵķ
()
    ֹ۵ձֵ˵ŵ㣬ĳЩض¼
ʵʺơǿԷֱḻַʽ
    ȣձɵһ֡ʵйȨȨΪ
ڵĸˣҸĹؼɲ֡β
ȻļֵܲһַǳҵĴ
    ڶڲ뾭÷չͻĹ۵ʱָڴʹ
񷢳İڵĸ棬һҪĹ߼
ֵ
    ʵΪṩһ໥ѧϰĻᣬγ
ֵۺҵҪȽ⡣һҪһʹ⡰
()ĸҲùڶԸѶ۵ͷۺ
ϣ˾ڹҸȻֵξ߷
ĹԼֵ⣬ҪĽԼֵձֵʱ
ֶ෽ķ
    Ҫ˽ڵĸ֡󡱣Ҫʹ
Ȩ͹ȨҪվݺͼӰ죬ۺ
Ȩ͹Ȩر뱣񹫿ۡۡͼ
صȨƶѶֵġ˼ǵһ̵ĺġ̶ֹ
γļֵ뷢ҪҲΪҪһ˵ûйۣ
йؽۣǾͲܷҪȴ⡣
    ʵϣʱԻķΧЧ͹
۶෢չйҵĸʵĽͣҪá֤ݱ
۸ʶĶرǶ긾ŮĶӰ죬
ӡĻˮƽϸߵʵ½˺ܴáӡȿ̩׶
ɵ°ڿʼγִҸͥСͥĹֹĲ빫ڵĹ
йϵڵΪٷ֮һߣӢͷ
ȴйİٷ֮һŵֽͨ͡ǿƷﵽ
µļֵۣζԻԻһаҪɫ
ڣǸŮĻˮƽϸ(йκʡݶ)ҲζԻ
ΪܵҪء
    ֱΣմЩȽֶͨ
˷ĸΣմӦǱʶԼ󡱵ĸݡ磬
ǺĶܱΪԼġ󡱡磬ǿ
ϣԼϡǲѳΪһ֡󡱣ΪȻ
ǹ춡ҪĹ֪ЩΣմԤ֪Ԥ
еĹϵ˽ߵĿ(ر
)ĹУ۰˹ؼɫȨɱ۵Ȩ
춴ٽԾҪӦҪ˽⾭ҪḺ́Ҳǳ
Ҫ

ֵձ

    ȷļֵͲĳһŵ㣬
ŵ㡣ЩŵһβеȻҪԣ
ڶڴʹԹҪ棬ṩιƵĹҪԣ
γɼֵۡ⹫ҪȨְĽáһ
ڿ۱ĵ۵㣬һձֵ
    ʱʱ˵˶ͬоã
ǰȵʱˡȷˣﲻ
ڹʶЩ˽ڹʶձֵ۵ĳ֤ݡ
    ȻǱӷۿʼۣʲձֵĳֱΪձֵĶ
ǷҪ˵ĹʶˣձֵͿܲڣ
Ϊûֵּ(ĸ)û⵽ĳЩ˵ķԡΪձֵҪ
ͬκεط˶Ϊмֵġ
    ʵǱձֵĹ۵ʱû˵κ˶ΪǱԼ
ж׼򣬶ֻ˵κ˶гΪǱмֵƣ̩
˼ձֵʱҲû˵˶ԭ򣬶˵˶
ɽЩ˴̽˵ֽۡǶ
ĳֶձֵκţĳЩʵ(counterfactual)йأ
Ƿδ˼пĳֵּǹ
йձֵţּ衣
    ΪԵļ跽棬Ƕ̬ڶʮͷ
ת䡣ĳûġûлῼƵĹң
ʱһǵʵͻͬ
ʮ͵ּͨ衣ֱΪȻļ(ǰ˵ġԤ
)ڶʮͷ˾ұ仯
    һָһ仯ں̶ܴԶԶʮʷĿ졣
չ֧ԽԽ࣬١Դŷ޺
ƶȣɢңԶ䣬ЩطԸ벢ƶ
ңĳƶ⵽Ʒھͻй㷺Ŀ飬Щ
⵽пѹˡðΣΪָս
    Щ˷ձֵɲûеõͬǸ
Ĺ鲻ͬЩͬĹʱָĳЩҵƶǵ˵
ĵ˵Ĵ
    ȣıöرҪȻټ
ļܺߡҲ춽ΣдӾýˤĳƶߡо
ҪϷԼһҪﵽձ鸻ԣҪݳ
Ʒ
    Σû֤֤ڿѡ£˻ܾʮ
ӡڡ״̬ȡȨ빫ȨʱҲ
ɣѡУѡԲͬѳɡⳡ
ҪѡУΪ˫۵Ľ㡣ѡȡ
춹ȨӡƶĹ֮һѡȨ
ӳ̶ȣ춾ӡ
    ӡȵʷ飬ȫ˲ĹȨ˵Ϻ̩
ϼͻ˹̹顢ӡ޹ȡɵĶ֮ᣬǿ
Եõܷͬۡͬ޹ձɣһ
ַѹȵ˶뿹顣

Ļ

    һЩΪĵԱ绤۵㣬뾭ûйأĻ
йءЩ۵Ҳνġ޼ֵۡ˵˾
ӼɶɵĴͳЩҶȻָΪɵ̬ȡ
ڡڻ»ᡱĽбȽϸֹ۵㡣
    ĻʷϣӡȡжʺҵĹŵ䴫ͳУ
Ǻҵֹ֧۵κȷʵݡ磬ԪǰӡȵAshoka
ой̶Ԫ塢ǹְȷļء
    ˿ռȫİٷ֮ʮ޵Ķɳձ
ۺܲסš޼ֵۡʱȽǵرʺŵ
ҰĲţ޸ƣ춶ձ
̩Զ޹ΪӦøлҫֵؽ
ֹ۵㣬˵Ľģ塣ҫ˵Ĺ
붫иͬ˵ĶǣָձйԽϣ
ǲͬйĻӡĻĻӡĻҲǿ
ļֵۡ
    Ȼڶǵڲձй֮䣬ÿһ
ڲĲܴĻɷݡڽ͡޼ֵۡʱ
ÿӵĻЩҵĻܵӵӰ죬ҲܵӰ졣磬
йͺķ̴ͳʷƾöӰ㷺һǧٶھкܴ
⣬Щһ̵ܵ൱Ӱ졣ЩУûĸҴ
һֳʤ춳ɵľĻ
    ңӱҲŶԹҵäĿݡ·Ϊ
ӵĻشҪ𵱽ȨżٵĻɡ˵ʹ
ҲҪ滰(ƪ·¾ԻҲ֮)Ӳ
ǷʵҪͽԣڱҪʱԷԻ
˵ֺãҪ˵£ֲãҪ¸ҵ˵
º͡(ƪеΣΣУ޵Σѷ)
    ȷʵȷָеĺΰ޼ֵۡߣԹҵ
(Ҿ)Լͥҳ(Т)֮䣬ܷسͻ޼ֵ۵
ΪҽɫǼͥɫ졣˵໥ͻġҶԿ
˵һֱˣ͵һֻǴԼĸס
Ӵҵм䣬ֱ²ͬ໥ڸǣҲǸ
ֱ(·ƪҶԻᵳֱߣ丸
֮Իᵳֱ֮ǣΪΪֱӡ)
    ޼ֵ۵һؽΪȨֹ۵㾭ϸá
ǲӦùϸ۵ȱѧ֤ݣΪ۵Ĳѧ
߶ͣȨʽʽĴˡȤǣѧ
ʵε̬Ҳʵʵѧ̬ȴǳʵ
ǡ
    Ȼ޴ͳвҵȨļҲ׷
ءֻҪһ°ͼ߰(Aquinas)Ϳɷֳмɲ
޵רƷ޴һЩ춼ɺļأͷձ
ֵĿԣݰͼ򰢿ɵ(Ҳŷ͵Ĵ޳
ڽ̲е)ֽŷ޻һȻʽ
    춵жζ飬ǳ˹ɸ
̻Ӹ˵ɡͬһĻͳڴԵĹͬ˹
̡ӡȵİ˰ͼĪԶ(Aurangzeb)
ʵʵοݺڽ̿ݵĵѷĵͬʱŷ޵
Ϊݡ޺Ͱ͸Ҳвӡʮ͵ΰ̫ѧMaimonid
esò----ݵġȺ̫˵ŷޣڿݵĿ޵õ
յıӻӶðȫ
    ϴĻ硣Ҳ⡣ִŷ޹
ʤҪŷ˶͹ҵرڶʮγ
һʶĽΪһǧʷʹȻ
ͳ(ÿһַͳΪһֵĻ)Աȣһ־Ĵ
ֹ춼򵥻򣬲һЩ޹˵Ҳһ
ЩѧߵС
    ҾһλҪѧߵΪ෽棬λѧߵ
ӡǺͤٹͻûгʶĻĶ
Ԫԡȷصó˵д춶صλһָ
͹ȨɵĴͳͤٻ˵ִ֮ǰ
ͳ˲ͬĺ硣Ϊִ֮ǰܾã
ѾΪһ۵㾭ʷļ顣
    ޹˵ν޼ֵۡνֵÿ
һ˵ƺ֪ʶӴһǶȵóӦ˵޵
ÿһ˵ƾе˵֮Ӧʹ˫˵һ
Ҳ޷һձֵ

 

    Ѿйһձֵ⡣ļֵ
еȻҪԣڲιƷĹãԼγ
ֵ˽ȨְЧ߿ԷĽԹܡ
ЩԽԲе硣мҲе硣ֵĶԪ
ƺǴĻ硣Ļ췽۲ų⣬Ҳ
ڿѡ
    ڱѡرҪǿĹãǵ
ĻѾָķʽǿ˵
Ҳܵľޡһձֵţյɾ
ַǱ۵ĺġԲͬʷġĻɽ
ȾͲܵõһۡ    (˼룬ο״
ԡ)