йκϷΣ




    κϷԣָͳΪȨԱ绤˵ɣ༴ͳ֮㷺
ܡԾͳȨĺݣκϷһڡѧ롰οѧ
еĺԵ𡣴ϣǰӦȻʵȻļֺ壬ȹ
עκϷӦνעʵʵĽṹ乹̣νϷΣ
ָͳȨʧȥұ绤ɣѱ֤αԭٵõ
㷺Ͽɣͳ߻ɽͳߵʸȨ˹ԣϷϵ
ͳ޷ѴҳάڱҪˮƽϡ ȶ˹ϷΣ
ɡ룬Ϻ磬64ҳ

    ȶԡԶԣϷԵһؼָ꣺һϷ
ԲȨͨȶУȫûкϷԵȨ򲻿˳ʩչܳ
ά֡ϣ˵ϲڵıͻԡάϵ
ͳΡνеʹڹŴġɽִĺ֮У켯ŵȨҲ
ǽƾǿάҲҪĳְĳЩ¬˵
ʹǿҲǿԶˣԼǿתΪͳεģȨѷת
Ϊ񡣡 ¬󣺡Լۡ룬ӡ1980棬9ҳй
ŻҲ˵ϵ£¡⼴ֻ
̬ͳΡЩ۶϶Եйͬá

    ȻйͨװȡȨķʽѹԡԵľʤƷ˴½
лսʤߵֻǡʶʱ񡱡ܷâıҪЭ
δسԺġԵЧҡԣµĵȨ߱ȳǰл
Ʋ֤ͳȨȡ֮еͳֵͳηʽͳ
⣬Ա㽫ȡȨתΪӵ㹻ֵ֧ЧȨԱĿ־תΪ
ͬҳϡһ̣κϷ̡

    1949йκϷԵĽعΣ


һëʱĺϷԽ


    ̨̿ĴԬͬйΪʷ
׵ĸڽκϷԵĹУԴйδͳԮ
ԴǳޣѰйͳĺϷԴ棬ëԱʼʣй
Ϊν·ߡơִ棬Դ֤崫ͳǡȫ̷񶨡
ǴĳʷϵġͳԡǣȻһʷϵļ
ңӦҶλлʷһԵ˵λ֮ϣ
˵лͳͳα˵ͳϰò辶Ҫ
Ĺʶ̬ձ䡢ԡʷȻԡ֮͹ȫ¢
ϡϼ뼸ĸ˳ݡ϶¹㷺ǵļȨ֯ϵԡ
˹ΤͼΪҡ쵼ġʸ͵λ
ǡ͹۱Ȼġȫȷģ˳ӡ׷ӵǡձ
ʷ֤չɡҪȫӦá޿ɡ

    ˹ΤκϷԵĴͷΪ֣ͳ͡˹꣩ͺ
ܲ͡һ걸ķ࣬ȻǹںϷԵľѧʵ
УͳεĺϷһӵĻ ӲﰣA.ɵµȣȽѧ
ϵ̺ߡص룬2007棬33ҳëʱйȨ
ơĺϷżҪԭ򣬼ʷɣҲëһ
ĸ磬ëϯ·һȷë˼ս޲ʤһ
ЩԵʽơ磬ܷ˴ЭȷʩȨԴġ
ԡԣëʱЩʩûκʵʹܿԣΪͳκϷ
ùıҪԣͬʱëҲϮһЩʱĴͳϷԪ
ء磬ԡꡱһߵɫʵĿںΪԵëʥʶؼ
ѾŵĻȨϵʷ䣨ڲش̺ͻؽ̵йë͵ǹ
Ļ𡱡ΰ֪йЩڽζĻͼѱ
ķ񣩡

    йĺϷԽ˳롰׼˶
жδܽȶе֣δγŷԴ
δͳĸйκϷĵһԵķˮ루ˮֱǸĸ
ģĸ֮ǰȨͼϷҪڵеĸ־ʶ̬
֮ϣǹʣǡҪߣҲȨҪʵʩߣһԪ
쵼ĵȼƹҪȨ֯ʽĸڼ䣬йתϷҪ
ë󶫵ĳͶë󶫵ĸ˳֮ϣһ̶ϣë˳Ϊ
ȨռԴȪ˿пޡְŵȨн飬ǹʣëĸż
ŵԳΪȨҪʵʩߣЩֱӱëţּΪë˼
뾫ĸС顢ί顢һ顱Լ췴ɡӡ
ܻʱʩΪԾһʱת˲𣩵Ȩ֯˹ΤΪ
ͬĺϷͶӦŲͬȨ֯ʽͷģʽһ60ĵй
ʷеõȷеӳ֤60価йδйʵ⡢
ĸϷϷϵĲϱ仯йνṹơ
ϵȻɱطһϵеӦԸı䡣Щı䲻ĸһ
ЩԾҪĻ壩ȻĸԺëȻʹֺϷԽδ
ƶȻȫƲëļߣ漯ţȻƾëʶͳȨ
ȴ޴Ӽ̳ëĿ˹ƷʡӶ̳еȨͳκϷԣ
Ȩʵڡ˰Ĺ͢䣬˵ǣëǰΪ
롰һϯ顰£ҷġıáӰࡱϷԵ֤
֡گ̳СƲйʽƶȣǡĸɡǡϸɲɡ
ĸɡԻȨλȱ㹻ͬأʹûδڱ
šĵԪǼͰΪëɡұëżġλߡ
Сƽšõ˵ĵĸӵòµ̬ĸ˥ܡ
̨ԽԽ滯κϷΣһЩµֶζԺϷϵͳ
оֲ޲ع


èۡۡۡ


    ڵСƽִŶǰҪǹȨȨܵ굳ڡ
СƽĺܸߣңҲԱȻӵиĸ͸ǿ
ܣΣȨԴȻʮԵķǡͳԺ͡Ƿԡ
ޡƾ޿ɲѡٳ򽫵ĹʾȨʽ
ȷ޷աԽ׼Ϊ١ġë˼롱ëϯ·ߡ
ʾȨʶ̬ϷԣȻйȨδγɹмֵġͳ۾
νͳͳͳԣҲûȷ涨ԵĽӰλ򣬵Сƽִ
Ŷӵ̨ǳ¼ȻǹȨԡԵͨ㣣
Ϊëʽľֲ߸Ϊһ㣬Сƽ׼ȷë˼
ϵ޳ɡʵǼΨһ׼ʮĸйͳǿ޳
ʾȨλ롰ë˼롱ĸǰʮġͳƥ䣩̬
˸롰ɡȨԴԵÿɡʹνʵǼΨ
һ׼ѧ֮ҲȻԵʱռǿƵëʽ˵Ϊʲô
ǣë󶫸εˣõ˵͹ҵ쵼Ȩңܵڶ
ᶯҺ;˥ݲеƶȺʶ̬ҲѾٳɨء
κϷϵͳһϡԱ̵Σ

    ά˹٣David EastonκϷԵԴΪ棺ʶ̬ƶȽ
͸ʶ̬ͨĳΪϵͳṩϵڹͣƶȽṹͨ
һĳ͹淶ΪȨṩϵı绤õĸƷʺ͵Ϊ
͵ȨɵĸȨӮڵ֧ͬ֡ӦϵͳκϷԵͬ
ҲΪΣֵ֧ĺϷԶιͬ塢ơеȨߣ
ߵĳϣά˹٣ϵͳ۾룬ĳ
1989棬334335ҳԼDavid EastonA Reassessment of the Concept of 
Political Sup-port British Journal of Political Science1975vol 5pp.435
457.ڸոżŲȡͳʵȨĵ˵ٵһì
صĸ֣һˣɣȨëڣϣë·ߵĲʹʧܲӦԵ
ȨγۣҷԵ˵ĸĸ·׷ԴȨվԴ
ëԴҪëƶȺҪë͵ġ·ߡԣ
ƱҪëʽƺ͡ë˼롱ܣڷë·ߵ̫Զ
Ȩ˶֮Ȩ֮ˮ֮ԴںЩӵŻ
Եë·ߡ߸ĸ·Ϊӵ˵ǰԼۣܶԴֺ
Ըʵ㣬˵ұؽȨڷɥʧΪ
Ϊɹ֧֣ҪһȵƸĸֲëʶ
̬һʶȵԣʹ塢ʶ̬Ȩ
ߡͬʱ໥ĺϷ

    Ȩһ䡢λһ塱ѭϵͳѭ֤
໥֧ţһһپ٣ȱҪ໥ԡɵ뿪ԡԴ
λһ塱ƵκʵԸĸﶼȻζŶԼеĺϷݵҷ񶨡
˹ٵĹ۵ζţëʶ̬塱ƶȽṹ
ϷԴ֮УĸƱز㵽βˣιͬ塢
ƺ͵ϷԶ֮䣬ƱزԴչν΢
ȫ

    СƽĺϷ޲ع֮ǡۡèۡۡۡ
ۡľǣܰèèץסǺèΪèۡʯͷ
ӡΪۣۡ󵨵ԣ󵨵شΪۡζ
Ҫԡλһ塱ṹȥһ廯ĲжͷָԺϷϵͳʩԹʵ
Ȯ廯ֲ졣Ϊʶ̬Ȳܹ񶨡ֲԭֻ֣Եģ
ʶᳫۡƶȽṹȲȷͻơֲܹ̲Է⣬ֻҸġ
ҸϣʶšۡȨ޷Ѿʧʶ̬
幫ƵԽ֮ϣֻܸؽڸĸɹչЧʵĿ֮ϣ
СèۡҪԸĸ￪γɵľȥϷʧɵ
ʧǣڸĸ￪ŵȫУʶػرʶ̬⡢
ϵشìܣ󽫹ĺϷڡԭ򡱵ķΧ֮ڡ

    СƽЩԲ߽֫⡰塱ŤȴƶȽṹһ
ֵʵѡжľ档νͷ⡱ƣ
תջȳ²֡Щ˵áЩ˵ãЩ˭
šȴЩʵȴ˭˵ơǣ
ĿƣԵĺϷԹʵʩֲɻľøĸߣ
ӭĺϷԺӦһȸȨײҳϣ
һšͬԣƱ԰ƽʧ䡣Ӧ˵ЩԲë
ĽʱڡڰٷϾ˵ĸĸļЧǣϸϣǲǺϷ
ΣĽֻ֮Σӻ֮ߺΣʱļ֮

    ԶǣнǡӳԶܹÿܹ壬ǵ
ϲġɡؿ˵Щ˵Ǳ˲˵Ƕ˵ǵĵ
·ϻǶǻԽԽࡢԽԽأͨϸһŻҵ
һԹһûֹûзæµ֮Уʹǵȫɹ
ôкֲɿؿˣۡ룬ӡ1998
棬217ҳһǰؿ˶ԡԵĺ߽ݾϲٵıķ
ľȷԤڱ߿ԭⲻ۵СƽʽġԵĺ߽ݾ
ϲٵıĺϷ޲֮


ĸ￪ţЧֲϷԡԾ˥


    κϷԵ޲عԣԡۡӲ͡ԭΪҪ
ݵġСƽۡĺǣͨǿܲΡЧԡ
ѾʧʧͱؽʧΡԡ༴Ծøĸ֮¹
ͳ֮νϷԡȥ©ٳìܡƲκ
ԡ

    ĦأSeymour Martin Lipsetڡˡε
һȷˡϷԡ롰ЧԡϷԡϵͳļ
ֵΣʶ̬롢ͳĿЧԡ
ϵͳĹܡЧΣСִЧ˶
ĹϵһϷԽϸߵȻЧһڹܡЧ
˺ҵĻҲշǶԵȨֵμֵۺ
ƵͳĿϿĦأˡε
룬Ϻ1997棬55ҳǣЩܽͺ̨塢
ȵȨͳεġЧԡ൱ʱǰδеĺϷΣҲ
ͺйڡԾһͿء꾭ʱڡҰʱᵹƽ
ڡĸ￪ȡþĿΰɾ͡1989꣬ȴʷģ
ο˶

    ʣʱйĶ⿪šڸгĸ׿гЧģ
ھá棬伨Ч˸ĸ쵼ǵֹ۵ԤڣȻҲ˹
ήɥĴۣǣĸʼЧԣ֤˽ոĸ
⹹ԣ֤˵ġṹԣĸԽ룬Խ
ϵͳ˵ĸЧԼʳɾ֤ˡ϶εĺϷԣ˵
ˡӾеĺϷΣΪĸĳЧԽԽǶȫĸ
׸ĸڴԽ͹δȷʶ̬ĻƶȽṹ飬Խ
ǶδĸĸЩΡƵĲͳԸ⿴Ҳ
Ըܵġ

    ڵֿӦøлĸ쵼ߣлǵġߡڶڿ
ӦЩĸ֮ĵߣЩƵķߺά
ߣһȻþֲĸųһЩСл
ǡùͬһҲѹҪ⣬¿ͬһĸ
ͺͼֵУͳ뱻ͳǴΪͬġĸչϷ
ԣǲأһìܵĴƽ塣

    ʵϣ80ĩĸ￪ŵĳһЩʵɾѾʼʵʵڵת
ΪκϷԵĸʲɸĸĶԹʶ̬һר
ɡײγ׳󡢹βʶѡŸִ
ṫԵذܻԲ¾ײ
ͻ𽥴ﵽˡèۡۡۡӲĸ֡綨
ĸҲɵĵز

    ˾ǳη粨۱֤ͼԡϷԡκϷԣͼ
ֹۡǶͳȨʸ׷ʣ·ͨпάڡƶ
͢ڡ仯еָ˥ܵ塢ûȨ֮ỳɺ
Ƿ͡Чʱ򣬶ǡǡɾ͡༴
ЧԡﵽԽϸ̶߳ȵʱпά˵ڷЩ̵ؽ
˸ĸҡԵĵηķԴأΪЩطʹ
ȷѾᣬʹȴ񡱡˵һ˵Σյʱͨ
ʼĸʱ̡пάƶ룬ӡ1992
棬209210ҳμѶP.͢٣仯е򡷣ڻ룬
1989棬4649ҳ͢Ϊβ֮ŸӵĹϵ
һּ˵ϽֻоչҲܳ֡෴һ
ʮ൱ȶģΪڶϵͳ߱Ծη֮ģ
Ҳû㹻ľʶȥƶȵĸЩٵйĸ
ĳɾκϷ֮۹ϵзʡʾ塣


ġάȣϷΣȫ


    һӰԶα硣ѹһרļȵȨȻ
ǣȴһ˸ĵϺκϷԡɥʧһͨƽ
ϷΣӶȨڸӼʵ͵֮ϵʷԻӴ
㲻ٿܴݲȵش¡èۡۡۡĵʽĸҵй߲
֪鵨ӡֲ̿һ紵ݶ㷽ҡٴСԤʾ˺ϷΣ
ȫ֮йȶѹһСĿںţάȡΪͷҪ
ִĿꡣ˼˵йѾȾϷԲ֢

    һ˵ϷԵḻ́ȨѸʧ飬͵֢״ǣ
ͳ֪ȨԴͳηʽĿɥʧʵϣ
ҲδšδͬٷһλˣʧȥȨĿ־
ճֳ̬Ŀ־Źǵ־ʶ֧ǵоٴ롣
ȨøӶӡӽ꣬ǶȨ̰ԼȨı˽ĳ嶯Ҳ͸ӼС
¶ǡڡ֪Ȩļֵոһձʴδڴ
Ȼȥͳ뱻ͳ֮ѺѾͳӵĹϵɱҪġ
ʶǰ̵Ľǡ߶ȲȶδԤڡ

    ϷΣȫһЩǣϵͳԽԽӹ塢ȱ£
ǣԱڣԹٷԡٷı͹ٳʽֳձĲΡ
Ūӣĸҡ֮ĶԽԽճ滯ȺԿ¼
ԽԽƵԽԽңЩ¼УӳƽʧͲӳ
һķǶκϷԵԽԽԡɢԣ
ĳЩԱĳЩߵɣĳЩĳЩɣߵ߲֡㶯
ɣƶȵɣιͬ塢ҵɣ3.14¼½
7.5¼ȻѲǶԵ֡߻ƶȵĲҪǶιͬ弴
йĺϷսб֣ҳһ

    ˵1978ӡȫᡱʼĵһָĸԸĸıô1992ӡ
СƽѲʼĵڶָĸԸĸسɡǰǴǰۣΪ·
룻ǰпصıֻкȨɽӵǰ߻
ҪһЩҷ񶨵š򼸺ȫ˽Ȩ
ĸѳɼߣʳ֮ζ֮ϧǣˡĸ֮⣬Ȩû
ɹӻִʱʵòȼĸ֤ĴڼֵĶʵ
Ǽĸ״͡ȷδڴκ
˵ɡǹʣĸʱˡάȡʱĸĸ⣬άȡ
⡣νάȡ⼴Ȩλ塣ȵ棬ֵܾ
ͳȨļ飬ǡάȡӦ֮塣άȡԹϵͳҪѲ
ĸʹ£෴ƳԱһȷľ棺Ȩзգĸ

    άȡǶԺϷϵͳĻعֻǶԺϷΣһʮ
ޡעԽԽ޵ȻҲѾʶκϷԶԣչ
ʲôӲάȡҲ˥鵤ҩϷԵĸߵͼȲ
GDPʵĴС㣬ԹࡢؾǵսǿЩ
ԵġӲʵӲָꡱȣĿԡγŵöȡ
ĻμֵԡεµĸγԣЩԵġ
ԵġεġʵĳɳԾǨǸΪҪĺϷָ롣

    мڴˣĩ񡢺лΰˡ
ֵȽԡȫСгᡱȿںţͼ
ë˥ܺʶ̬աСƽĻĸۡЩʵĿں
ֳһЩص㣺һǴӵģʶ̬תΪʶ˸ʶ̬
ν۴¡ʶزݺƫ帴ˡ
ںžԵ̣㡰йɫйģʽЩ
ڽʱ˶ԡ졢ĻͻĿ
ȾڵСƽйɫֻΪʽͳǼ
ڴͳĻ˸ͳĻСгᡱЩ˼룬ϵ
ȡҾ䡶ǡڹٷıУȴǻΪӿ빲
ߵë˽ӿѧԳɺȫǹͬеΰ룬ëһ
󡢹Žӻ⣩ЩںּǱĸȷ־ήңԶ
ȽȺڡԽδʧйȻͳԶĹ
롱𣬵йȻǡйɫõĺϸʦΨһ
·ˣ׷߽ڲԶĽáг롰СķرȻЩں
ʵڴ졢Ƥʲݣȱ߼ϵ֤ϵĸ޴»
ǶһȨձ龰ŷ


塢


    ΪйκϷ첻㡢췦ëϷԽ
ʷȻú͸˳ΪݵĿ¥󣻵úϷԻصϣȴ
ȱֵ֧ŵʵ塢ʼЧ֮ϣ˵ĺݴºϷԽ
ֻæҵԴֱġάȡʩʹֲڵġҪ˼롱ʱӦԺϷΣ

    ڵ硢йȻʥԡִͳμž
νȽԡЩѺѱܡͬѱԼ
ܡȨļֵԴȪȨʹ뷨ԼǵκϷԵ
ҪάȡάֽйԺϷΣ
δýעǲܳɹġ

